I thought I’d do something different and compare the 3rd quarter of 2010 with the previous years going back to 2005 to see if there was anything helpful that could be concluded. This is for single family homes sold in Westchester, and all data is taken from the Westchester-Putnam Multiple Listing Service.
Two things jump out immediately:
- 2009 median price was deplorable. Way down. And just to double check, I did the mean price, and it too, was also down about $100,000.
- After the sub prime crisis of 2007, transaction totals were way down.
Even if you consider 2005 abnormally high and 06-07 to be more “normal,” there are 300-500 sales not happening in the years 2008-2010. More than price, that lower transaction total is where the current housing depression lives.
Therefore, the 2010 $730,000 median price is not nearly as robust as the 2005 $710,000 median price. 800 fewer deals X $700,000 is $560,000,000, or over half a billion, less commerce. One county, no matter how affluent, cannot sustain a recovery with those numbers. All it means is that the upscale market rebounded some, buoying the lower cost market statistically, but if you didn’t sell, the only number that matters is “zero.”
While we do not know what the future holds with the foreclosure market in limbo, the numbers would indicate that we are past the nadir.
Buy and hold. Or, buy and live.