Note to Self: Check the Calendar, Stupid
J Philip Faranda June 25, 2012
A buyer I have been working with has told me that the choices in his price range have dried up considerably compared to years past when he was not ready to act. Another agent with whom I am working with on a deal in northern Westchester County has observed that inventory is down.
These are "anecdotal examples" of market conditions, but, like my gut feeling, they are not scientific, nor are they statistics.
So, I dug back to one of my market reports from a year ago and started to compare the second quarter for Yorktown in 2011 to the second quarter this year. I expected inventory to be down and sales to be up. Instead, I found some peculiar numbers: 27 sales at a median price of $380,000 in Yorktown for 2011, and a mere 22 sales in the second quarter of 2012 at a median of $379,000. Worse, inventory was UP- 156 listings to 150.
The one piece of good news- actually, great news- is that the 44 pending sales this year tower over the 26 at the end of the second quarter least year.
Then, it dawned on me. We aren't at the end of the second quarter yet. The second quarter ends June 30. This is June 25. And guess when there are a slew of closings? You guessed it, at the end of the month, especially a month like June when school ends. It would just be a smart thing, if I am going to compare time frames from different years, to make sure that, you know, the current year's second quarter is actually complete before I judge.
Extrapolating from the numbers thus far, the observations look like they'll be correct. But I'll wait until early July before I say so. Please excuse me while I drink some coffee and mutter to myself.