In light of yesterday’s revelation of Ossining’s strange May, where median price dropped almost $60,000 but closings more than tripled compared to the prior May, I did a quick survey of other towns to see if the trend was anywhere else in the county. My thought about Ossining was that sales increased because prices dropped. It was a very “supply and demand” sort of conclusion. Was it the same elsewhere? I surveyed a few other towns, and here are the results:
May 2011- 5 sales. Median price $340,000
May 2012- 3 sales. Median price $185,000
Peekskill bucked the trend ( Rough month too.)
May 2011- 6 sales. Median price $645,000
May 2012 – 9 sales. Median price $524,350
Mt Kisco followed the trend.
May 2011- 16 sales. Median price $540,000
May 2012- 7 sales. Median price $600,000
White Plain followed the trend in the wrong direction. Trend Bucked.
May 2011- 7 sales. Median price $572,000
May 2012- 5 sales. Median price $591,000
Eastchester bucked the trend.
Yorktown (excluding Lakeland schools)
May 2011- 12 sales. Median price $387,500
May 2012- 10 sales. Median price 342,250
May 2011- 14 sales. Median price $1,918,831
May 2012- 20 sales. Median price $1,280,000
Only two of the six random towns had sales increase with prices decreasing. However, 5 of the six places did have a predicable inverse relationship between sales volume and price (higher prices, fewer sales, lower prices, more sales). This was, of course not at all scientific, and both the number of towns and their respective transaction totals can’t be considered a representative sample.
Don’t think for a minute that it is as bad as the three sales in Peekskill would suggest, nor do I believe for a second that home values in Scarsdale are down 30%. Every locale has its own trends and unique dynamic. All real estate is local.
This is why you can’t rely on NAR, Case/Schiller or any other national index to inform you of how things are in your neck of the woods. When we read about prices plummeting in the sunbelt 3 years ago, we knew it was never that bad locally. True also, now that we are seeing that there are multiple bids in homes all over southern California we know it is not that good locally. As the numbers show, you can’t even predict what one town will do compared to another. The deeper you drill locally, the more things can vary zip code to zip code.
I’ll repeat: All real estate is local.